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The emergence of the "black swan" of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020 has brought more headwinds to economic globalization, and the simultaneous shrinkage of global trade and investment scale and economic aggregate has aroused the attention of all parties. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development called in the "Trade and Development Report 2020" that without radical policies to reactivate trade and capital flows, the recovery and development resilience of the global economy will face enormous pressure.

This call has been strongly responded to at the end of 2020. Following the formal signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) on November 15, 2020, the leaders of China and the EU jointly announced on December 30 that the negotiations on the China-EU Investment Agreement will be completed as scheduled, which will undoubtedly inject strong momentum into the post-epidemic global economic development.

This will effectively stabilize the economic, trade and investment cooperation between the world's two largest economies.

In recent years, China-EU bilateral trade cooperation has been ahead of investment cooperation. In 2019, the EU overtook the US to become China's largest trading partner. However, in the same year, the stock of EU direct investment in China accounted for only 5.6% of China's stock of foreign investment, and the stock of China's direct investment in the EU accounted for 4.3% of the total stock of foreign investment.

The EU-China Chamber of Commerce believes that the technological advantages of China and the EU are complementary, and the potential for investment and cooperation between the two parties is huge. The EU and China have their own advantages in emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, 5G and cloud computing. At the same time, the two sides have strong demands for cooperation in the field of industrial technology. According to the "Business Confidence Survey 2020" of the EU-China Chamber of Commerce, 62% of members said that if China further expands market access, they are willing to increase investment in China, and nearly half of the members are prepared to reinvest 5% to 10% of their annual income. A third of members said the investment would be greater. A breakthrough in the China-EU investment agreement negotiations will help both sides create a transparent, consistent and predictable business environment.

Looking forward to the development trend of the world's major economies in 2021, major institutions are generally concerned that insufficient policy support may delay the recovery process of the world's major economies. However, the breakthrough of the China-EU investment agreement has provided more certainty to the uncertain global economy.

From the perspective of the EU, the Asia Society of the United States believes that through this agreement, European companies have obtained important business opportunities, especially important market access. In the foreseeable future, Europe will share the dividends of opening up in China's financial services, electric vehicles, telecommunications and other fields. A previous survey by the EU-China Chamber of Commerce showed that although global economic growth has slowed down in recent years, European companies with operations in China have made a lot of money. 39% of members said that their revenue in 2019 increased by 20% year-on-year; 11% of members said that the growth rate of their business in China was even higher. Therefore, the EU-China Chamber of Commerce believes that the Chinese market contains unlimited potential, and European companies hope to share the development dividend. The conclusion of a follow-up agreement will undoubtedly be conducive to the recovery of the EU economy after the epidemic.

Reuters believes that China has made breakthroughs in RCEP and the China-EU Investment Agreement at the end of 2020. On the one hand, this reflects China's determination and confidence in promoting high-level opening up, and on the other hand, it has also laid a good foundation for China to build a new development pattern. BBVA believes that this breakthrough has multiple dividends for China. A more convenient, transparent and open bilateral investment environment will effectively promote bilateral investment and add new momentum to the medium and long-term development of the Chinese economy. More EU companies investing in the Chinese market and the Chinese government's policy agenda for structural reform will further enhance the international competitiveness of Chinese companies. Competitiveness.

In particular, it should be emphasized that the spirit of cooperation shown by China and the EU in promoting the investment agreement is exactly what is urgently needed for the recovery of the global economy after the current epidemic.

After the completion of the negotiations, Woodker, chairman of the EU-China Chamber of Commerce, expressed the hope that the two sides will maintain the current spirit and attitude of advancing the negotiations and reach relevant agreements as soon as possible. produces result".

The EU-China Chamber of Commerce previously stated that some people in the market are encouraging foreign-funded enterprises to take the initiative to "decouple" from China, but European enterprises are looking forward to further consolidating their positions and participating in the competition for market share. The conclusion of a strong China-EU investment agreement shows that deepening cooperation is still the best path of development, which can also refute the international "zero-sum game" noise.

BBVA said that in the post-pandemic era, the China-EU investment agreement will be a "breaker", showing that countries in Europe and Asia have abandoned the Cold War mentality and are using economic and trade rules to seek to establish a closer relationship. Under the new bilateral and multilateral trade and investment framework, promoting global recovery will require the perseverance of all countries. (Wang Chutian)

Source: Economic Daily